Forex Technical Analysis for 08/20-08/24 Week

EUR/USD - sell.
GBP/USD - sell.
USD/JPY - sell.
EUR/JPY - sell.

Floor Pivot Points:
Pair	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res
EUR/USD	1.3847	1.3567	1.3520	1.3614	1.3567	1.3661	1.3614
GBP/USD	2.0353	1.9301	1.9556	1.9906	2.0161	2.0511	2.0766
USD/JPY	119.03	107.87	111.12	114.84	118.09	121.81	125.06
EUR/JPY	163.31	142.21	148.15	155.19	161.13	168.17	174.11

Woodie's Pivot Points:
Pair	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res
EUR/USD	1.3532	1.3451	1.3579	1.3498	1.3626
GBP/USD	1.9301	1.9556	1.9906	2.0161	2.0511
USD/JPY	107.87	111.12	114.84	118.09	121.81
EUR/JPY	142.21	148.15	155.19	161.13	168.17

Camarilla Pivot Points:
Pair	4th Sup	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res	4th Res
EUR/USD	1.3448	1.3461	1.3465	1.3470	1.3478	1.3483	1.3487	1.3500
GBP/USD	1.9477	1.9644	1.9699	1.9755	1.9865	1.9921	1.9976	2.0143
USD/JPY	110.54	112.45	113.09	113.73	115.01	115.65	116.29	118.20
EUR/JPY	146.96	150.53	151.72	152.91	155.29	156.48	157.67	161.24

Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
Pairs	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	EUR/JPY
100.0%	1.3707	2.0257	118.56	162.22
61.8%	1.3689	2.0026	115.90	157.26
50.0%	1.3684	1.9955	115.08	155.73
38.2%	1.3678	1.9883	114.25	154.20
23.6%	1.3671	1.9795	113.23	152.30
0.0%	1.3660	1.9652	111.59	149.24

Federal Reserve Loosens Rates for Banks

Federal Reserve of the United States of America lowered its primary credit rate (at which money to the banks are borrowed) from 6.25% to 5.75% to add liquidity to financial and lending markets. Federal Reserve (as the today's FOMC statement says) is concerned with the current situation of the economy growth and the crisis in the credit sector. FOMC also approved that there risks of growth slowing increased appreciably. Here is the Federal Reserve's press release concerning the bank rates:

To promote the restoration of orderly conditions in financial markets, the Federal Reserve Board approved temporary changes to its primary credit discount window facility. The Board approved a 50 basis point reduction in the primary credit rate to 5-3/4 percent, to narrow the spread between the primary credit rate and the Federal Open Market Committee's target federal funds rate to 50 basis points. The Board is also announcing a change to the Reserve Banks' usual practices to allow the provision of term financing for as long as 30 days, renewable by the borrower. These changes will remain in place until the Federal Reserve determines that market liquidity has improved materially. These changes are designed to provide depositories with greater assurance about the cost and availability of funding. The Federal Reserve will continue to accept a broad range of collateral for discount window loans, including home mortgages and related assets. Existing collateral margins will be maintained. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of New York and San Francisco.

This suggests some more cautiousness to Forex traders, especially long-term ones. While the short-term traders may reap some profits from the fast moving markets, long-term traders might need to revise their recent strategies.

Correction of Neuimex Situation

Today, I've been contacted by Neuimex representative and he told me that the company which is under bankruptcy process Neuimex Asset Management AG (Switzerland) and the Forex broker company Neuimex Direct Dealing (NDD) S.A. (British Virgin Islands) are completely different companies. Thus, Neuimex broker continues its operation as normal and doesn't have any bankruptcy problems. So, you can disregard my recent post about it. Here is exactly what Neuimex representative said:

Dear Blogwriter,

we have to tell you that your message is absolutely misunderstanding and wrong in facts.

http://www.earnforex.com/blog/labels/neuimex.html

The bankruptcy case affects only the following company:

Neuimex Asset Management AG, Switzerland . There is a lot of discussion in Switzerland about these facts and the whole story will be a case for a lawsuit. And regarding the news from them: only the lawyer Mr. Spaniol is responsible for any publications. Neuimex management is by law not allowed to send any message or publish any message to customers. Before spreading such "news" you should know the facts in details.

But different from this there is another company:

Neuimex Direct Dealing (NDD) S.A. registered on British Virgin Islands. NDD has no business connection with Neuimex Asset Management AG - the name is leased from AG for some time as they use the same platform. Neuimex Direct Dealing is a Forex Broker and is working fine and no problems occur. Accounts start from 300USD and mini and standard accounts are available.

And your warning about regulations? I will give you some nice examples:

Marketiva:

Regulatory Information Marketiva Corporation is a financial service provider incorporated as an international business corporation in British Virgin Islands with registration number IBC CAP. 291 Reg. № 646819. Marketiva Corporation is under jurisdiction of the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and conforms with its regulations and internationally accepted supervisory and regulatory standards.

This is Bullshit http://www.bvifsc.vg/ - the same as NDD has.

Northfinance:

NorthFinance.com Forex Broker

We have been trading on the foreign currency exchange market since 2001, going from strength to strength. North Finance is registered in Belize. Its operate within the financial market in accordance with The Memorandum of Association and Articles of Association, which was given to the company by Belize International Business Companies Act. Our success is attributed to the value we place in our customers and the trust they place in us in return. Foreign currency trading with us is simple, safe and open to every trader and investor. Opening an account is fast and ready to activate within ten minutes from any continent. Open a FOREX account with us today to enjoy the benefits so many have already experienced.

Bullshit - the same and nothing worth. And 90% of the brokers you have listed on your website are not regulated. We ask you to be more prcecise and hold to the facts. All offshore brokers write any strange regulation. What is the difference to NDD?

Thanks for your understanding.

With kind regards

Once again, sorry for any inconvenience caused. That just shows how really different naming helps in business.

Carry Trade Ruined by Stocks Market Chaos

EUR/USD reached its two month minimum and almost broker out of its long-term bullish trend today. World stocks markets continue to fall with the main reason lying in panic caused by the crisis in subprime lending U.S. sector. Cashing out of stocks papers causes also carry trade retreating with a huge buying back of JPY and USD (in a lesser dimension) for other currencies - thus the rally of JPY and USD. Even bad economical news from U.S. don't stop from buying it for Euro.
Weekly employment data showed a little increase of the initial jobless claims - 322k from 316k previous week, while analysts expected a small decrease.
Housing data continue to come out worse and worse - housing starts came out to be 1381,000, while building permits - at 1373k, which is approximately 25k lesser than the market was expecting.

Neuimex Faces Bancruptcy

Neuimex Forex broker, which offered Metatrader 4 trading with e-gold support since 2005 is now bankrupt and is in process of liquidation. The process began in March this year, but many of its clients are still unaware of this because of a lack of any news from Neuimex.

The Swiss Federal Banking Commission (SFBC) opened bankruptcy proceedings against Neuimex Asset Management AG with effect as of March 30, 2007, 8:00 a.m. The opening of bankruptcy proceedings together with the call to creditors were published on the webpage of the SFBC (see http://www.ebk.admin.ch/e/) on April 10, 2007 and will be published in the Swiss Official Gazette of Commerce on April 18, 2007.

This is a very worrying news for the Forex traders and it once again warns anyone of problems connected with using brokers without a proper historical background or regulation.

Dollars Benefits from Excessive Euro Liquidity

EUR/USD hit its new significant bottom near 1.3455 level after dollar continued to grow on the high Euro liquidity level and good economical releases from U.S. Next technical support for EUR/USD lies near 1.3330 mark, so it is reasonable to expect some more USD rallying by the end of this week or next week.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, released by Bureau of Labor Statistics, showed 0.1% growth in July (as expected) compared to 0.2% growth in June.
Industrial Production report didn't make any surprises too and came out with a 0.3% growth in July (in June it grew by 0.5%).
Net Foreign Purchases in July fell by $5.2B compared with June number and came out at $120.9B level, which is still historically high.

PPI and Trade Balance Make EUR/USD Drop Farther

EUR/USD dropped to its new mid-term minimum (since 07/02/2007) at 1.3560, continuing its fall after the major currency intervention by European Central Bank, which took place yesterday to prevent a possible low liquidity on the financial markets of the European Union. Some good macroeconomic news released in U.S. added some fuel to dollar rally.
Producer Price Index came out at 0.6% increase compared to 0.1% consensus value and -0.2% previous value. Core component of PPI was worse but not dramatically - 0.1% of growth compared to 0.2% in forecast.
U.S. Trade Balance report showed some psychologically positive numbers. Unfortunately for the U.S. they are still mathematically negative, but nevertheless trade balance deficit continue to decrease. In June it was -$58.1 billions ($2.9B better than expected and $1.1B better than previous month).

Synthesis Bank - a Forex Broker From Switzerland

Synthesis Bank is a registered banking body, located in Switzerland (Geneva and Zurich) and offering Forex trading services. Besides Forex they also offer CFD, Futures, Stocks and Bonds trading which makes it quite a good choice for those that wish to diversify their portfolio as much as possible. Synthesis Bank doesn't offer Metatrader 4 platform, instead they provide their own platform - Trading Floor. Their spreads are quite good - from 2 pips on EUR/USD, but lack of mini Forex accounts doesn't serve as an advantage of Synthesis Bank brokerage services.

EUR/USD Hits Monthly Low After ECB Intervention

EUR/USD hit new monthly minimum at 1.3606 today, bouncing back from both the psychological support of 1.3600 and technical support level around 1.3605. One of the main reason for the vigorous dollar behavior can be seen in ECB today's currency intervention of more than €130 billions. Such a harsh step was needed to prevent a highly possible financial market collapse.
Economical statistics which came this day from the Unites States of America strengthened USD even further. Advance retail sales came out at 0.3% growth compared to 0.2% expected and retail sales excluding autos came out at 0.4% compared to 0.3% expected. Manufacturers' and trade inventories, seasonly adjusted, are estimated at 0.4% growth compared to May 2007 (at the expected level).

Forex Technical Analysis for 08/14-08/18 Week

Estimated general trends:
EUR/USD - bearish.
GBP/USD - bearish.
USD/JPY - bearish or ranging.
EUR/JPY - bearish or ranging.

Floor Pivot Points:
Pair	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res
EUR/USD	1.3870	1.3526	1.3610	1.3724	1.3808	1.3922	1.4006
GBP/USD	2.0513	1.9973	2.0102	2.0282	2.0411	2.0591	2.0720
USD/JPY	119.91	115.82	117.10	118.47	119.75	121.12	122.40
EUR/JPY	165.76	157.07	159.59	162.48	165.00	167.89	170.41

Woodie's Pivot Points:
Pair	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res
EUR/USD	1.3519	1.3594	1.3717	1.3792	1.3915
GBP/USD	1.9973	2.0102	2.0282	2.0411	2.0591
USD/JPY	115.82	117.10	118.47	119.75	121.12
EUR/JPY	157.07	159.59	162.48	165.00	167.89

Camarilla Pivot Points:
Pair	4th Sup	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res	4th Res
EUR/USD	1.3584	1.3639	1.3657	1.3675	1.3711	1.3729	1.3747	1.3802
GBP/USD	2.0061	2.0146	2.0174	2.0203	2.0259	2.0288	2.0316	2.0401
USD/JPY	116.93	117.66	117.90	118.15	118.63	118.88	119.12	119.85
EUR/JPY	159.12	160.61	161.11	161.60	162.60	163.09	163.59	165.08

Tom DeMark's Pivot Points:
Pair:	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	EUR/JPY
Resistance:	1.3766	2.0501	120.44	163.74
Support:	1.3568	2.0192	117.79	158.33

Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
Pairs	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	EUR/JPY
100.0%	1.3839	2.0462	119.83	165.38
61.8%	1.3763	2.0344	118.82	163.31
50.0%	1.3740	2.0308	118.51	162.68
38.2%	1.3717	2.0271	118.19	162.04
23.6%	1.3688	2.0226	117.81	161.25
0.0%	1.3641	2.0153	117.18	159.97