Forex Technical Analysis for 08/14-08/18 Week

Estimated general trends:
EUR/USD - bearish.
GBP/USD - bearish.
USD/JPY - bearish or ranging.
EUR/JPY - bearish or ranging.

Floor Pivot Points:
Pair	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res
EUR/USD	1.3870	1.3526	1.3610	1.3724	1.3808	1.3922	1.4006
GBP/USD	2.0513	1.9973	2.0102	2.0282	2.0411	2.0591	2.0720
USD/JPY	119.91	115.82	117.10	118.47	119.75	121.12	122.40
EUR/JPY	165.76	157.07	159.59	162.48	165.00	167.89	170.41

Woodie's Pivot Points:
Pair	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res
EUR/USD	1.3519	1.3594	1.3717	1.3792	1.3915
GBP/USD	1.9973	2.0102	2.0282	2.0411	2.0591
USD/JPY	115.82	117.10	118.47	119.75	121.12
EUR/JPY	157.07	159.59	162.48	165.00	167.89

Camarilla Pivot Points:
Pair	4th Sup	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res	4th Res
EUR/USD	1.3584	1.3639	1.3657	1.3675	1.3711	1.3729	1.3747	1.3802
GBP/USD	2.0061	2.0146	2.0174	2.0203	2.0259	2.0288	2.0316	2.0401
USD/JPY	116.93	117.66	117.90	118.15	118.63	118.88	119.12	119.85
EUR/JPY	159.12	160.61	161.11	161.60	162.60	163.09	163.59	165.08

Tom DeMark's Pivot Points:
Pair:	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	EUR/JPY
Resistance:	1.3766	2.0501	120.44	163.74
Support:	1.3568	2.0192	117.79	158.33

Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
Pairs	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	EUR/JPY
100.0%	1.3839	2.0462	119.83	165.38
61.8%	1.3763	2.0344	118.82	163.31
50.0%	1.3740	2.0308	118.51	162.68
38.2%	1.3717	2.0271	118.19	162.04
23.6%	1.3688	2.0226	117.81	161.25
0.0%	1.3641	2.0153	117.18	159.97

EUR/USD To Break Above 1.3850?

After the Federal Open Market Committee released its statement yesterday EUR/USD remained on its positions until today's early European session, which brought Euro to a rally behind the crucial 1.3800 mark. Will EUR/USD stay above it? Probably. Will EUR/USD break the 1.3850 resistance barrier to soar high to 1.4000 level? Less probably. Let's look on the fundamentals.
Yesterday a labor productivity data for the industrial sector came out lower than expected by the majority of traders - 1.8% increase, instead of 2.1%. Meanwhile, consumer credit for June this year increased by 13.2 billion dollars, while analysts were expecting 6 billion dollars increase.
FOMC released another 'inflation-concerned' statement, leaving the interest rates at 5.25% level. While the main concern for the FOMC remains the inflation, it started to get nervous because of the risks connected with the economical growth and especially housing crisis.
Today data on business wholesale inventories came out slightly better than predicted - increased by 0.5% instead of 0.4%, while the crude oil inventories again dropped down significantly - by 4.1 million barrels.
Despite of FOMC being more inflation orientated, the economical growth correction will probably make them to decrease the interest rates at least once (or at least stop increasing it even more). Currently, housing data and oil inventories (taking in mind current oil prices) don't look very promising for the U.S.

Technical Analysis for 8/6-8/10 Week

EUR/USD general trend: slightly bullish.
GBP/USD general trend: slightly bullish.
USD/JPY general trend: ranging.
EUR/JPY general trend: slightly bullish.

Floor Pivot Points:
Pair	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res
EUR/USD	1.3781	1.3525	1.3648	1.3734	1.3857	1.3943	1.4066
GBP/USD	2.0404	2.0068	2.0235	2.0347	2.0514	2.0626	2.0793
USD/JPY	119.83	116.49	117.26	118.38	119.15	120.27	121.04
EUR/JPY	163.45	158.96	160.78	162.27	164.09	165.58	167.40

Woodie's Pivot Points:
Pair	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res
EUR/USD	1.3534	1.3668	1.3743	1.3877	1.3952
GBP/USD	2.0068	2.0235	2.0347	2.0514	2.0626
USD/JPY	116.49	117.26	118.38	119.15	120.27
EUR/JPY	158.96	160.78	162.27	164.09	165.58

Camarilla Pivot Points:
Pair	4th Sup	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res	4th Res
EUR/USD	1.3657	1.3715	1.3734	1.3753	1.3791	1.3810	1.3829	1.3887
GBP/USD	2.0249	2.0325	2.0351	2.0376	2.0428	2.0453	2.0479	2.0555
USD/JPY	117.00	117.52	117.69	117.87	118.21	118.39	118.56	119.08
EUR/JPY	160.77	161.68	161.98	162.29	162.89	163.20	163.50	164.41

Tom DeMark's Pivot Points:
Pair:	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	EUR/JPY
Resistance:	1.3796	2.0570	118.77	164.84
Support:	1.3587	2.0291	116.88	161.53

Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
Pairs	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	EUR/JPY
100.0%	1.3819	2.0459	119.49	163.77
61.8%	1.3739	2.0352	118.77	162.51
50.0%	1.3715	2.0320	118.55	162.12
38.2%	1.3690	2.0287	118.32	161.72
23.6%	1.3659	2.0246	118.05	161.24
0.0%	1.3610	2.0180	117.60	160.46

Dollar Struggling Below 1.3700

Another day marked by U.S. dollar's struggle to hold below the 1.3700 mark and get out of the bearish trend. EUR/USD is waiting for more bull power before turning back to rising or is just being corrected by some good yesterday's economical news from United States.
ISM reported on Manufacturing PMI in July disappointed many dollar bullish traders as it came out at 53.8%, below the 55.5% expected, showing some possible problems in the manufacturing sector of the U.S. economics.
Previous week's oil inventories report showed a great decline of 6.5 million barrels of crude oil, while commercial petroleum inventories fell by 0.7 million barrels. But total present volumes of inventories remain satisfactional.
Today's news are less encouraging than usually - but one day doesn't mean a lot in the economics. Further news releases will tell us what to expect from U.S. economy and USD.

EUR/USD Can't Stay Above 1.3700

After breaking back above the 1.3700 mark EUR/USD fell below this level as the economic releases on inflation and consumer confidence were released today. Struggling below this level, if continued, may precede the new bearish trend in EUR/USD, while rallying and staying above will mean a return to a long-lasting EUR/USD bull trend.
Personal income and spending June numbers came out today close to the predicted values - 0.4% to 0.5% and 0.1% to 0.1% respectively. Core PCE inflation came out at 0.1% level - below the 0.2% predicted. This means that the inflation indicators are not high yet.
Chicago PMI - a major manufacturing index for the North-West region - decreased significantly from 60.2 to 53.4, while 58.5 was expected.
Construction spending numbers continue to warn the market about the crisis in realty sector showing a decrease of -0.3%, while analysts expected 0.2% growth.
Consumer confidence - the main surprise of a day which kept dollar below 1.3700 and stock markets high - came out at the 112.6 level (far above 105.4 expected) - at its highest value since 2001.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis for the 7/30-8/3 Week

General trend: bullish.

Floor Pivot Points:
3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res
1.3336	1.3483	1.3558	1.3705	1.3780	1.3927	1.4002

Woodie's Pivot Points:
2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res
1.3465	1.3522	1.3687	1.3744	1.3909

Camarilla Pivot Points:
4th Sup	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res	4th Res
1.3511	1.3572	1.3592	1.3613	1.3653	1.3674	1.3694	1.3755

Tom DeMark's Pivot Points:
Resistance:	1.3853
Support:	1.3631

Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
100.0%	1.3852
61.8%	1.3767
50.0%	1.3742
38.2%	1.3715
23.6%	1.3682
0.0%	1.3630

EUR/USD Faces New Downfall And U.S. GDP Data Released

EUR/USD dropped to its more than two weeks old minimum touching 1.3630 today while the market expected good data on GDP of United States for the seconds quarter of 2007. Breaking below 1.3230 for EUR/USD will mean a big trend breakout, but while it is traded higher a temporal correction should be considered.
U.S. GDP in Q2 2007 rose by 3.4% - a very good increase after 0.6% (revised from 0.7%) in Q1. It is also greater than expected number - 3.2%. Chain deflator for Q2 came out slightly lower than expected - 2.7% against 3.4% expected. Overall these are quite good results for the Q2. If U.S. economy can keep up with this pace in the second half of 2007, then it would add some more power to both stocks and Forex markets.
Today also Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July became available - 90.4 against 91.5 - lower than expected but still at a high level, showing a good sign for the U.S. economical health in general.

Bad U.S. News Keeping EUR/USD Above 1.3700

Today EUR/USD was ranging between 1.3690 and 1.3770 marks retracing a half of the yesterday's dollar rally. U.S. economy had some bad news for dollar bulls with only one bad for Euro bulls.
Manufactured durable goods orders in June increased by only 1.4% which was much lower the expected number - 2.0%, but still better than May result of decline in 2.8%.
Initial jobless claims for the last week surprisingly came out at the 301,000 level, slightly below the 310,000 number which was predicted by financial experts. Being the only positive news for the day, job market is still doing quite well, especially comparing to realty market.
Help-wanted advertising index isn't a very influential indicator of the economy growth but its decline to 26 (its staying at 27 was expected) can be an early sign for some problems on the U.S. employment market.
New homes sales in June dropped significantly from 893K (revised from 915K) to 834K units, continuing the series of bad news from the real estate sector of economy.

EUR/USD Drops Down With Bad Data on Housing and Oil Inventories

EUR/USD today is showing a very intensive bearish rally dropping to 1.3700 level after failing to take over the 1.3850 resistance mark. The major reason for such market behavior can be seen in a technical correction which should have came after the overbought condition in EUR/USD reaches its peak. Personally I thought that this correction will come a bit later letting the EUR/USD to get higher before falling down, but market is market - U.S. dollar is rallying despite of bad macroeconomic statistics which came out today.
Existing home sales - a major indicator of the U.S. economy since the crisis in the real estate sector began earlier this year - came out at 5.75 million units - below the expected 5.90 million and below the previous number of 5.98 million in May.
Crude oil inventories in the week ending on July 20 declined by 1.1 million barrels, while the motor gasoline inventories rose by 0.8 million barrels and distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.5 million barrels.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis for the 7/23-7/27 Week

General trend: bullish.

Floor Pivot Points:
3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res
1.3683	1.3719	1.3772	1.3808	1.3861	1.3897	1.3950

Woodie's Pivot Points:
2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res
1.3723	1.3782	1.3812	1.3871	1.3901

Camarilla Pivot Points:
4th Sup	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res	4th Res
1.3777	1.3802	1.3810	1.3818	1.3834	1.3842	1.3850	1.3875

Tom DeMark's Pivot Points:
Resistance:	1.3834
Support:	1.3745

Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
100.0%	1.3843
61.8%	1.3809
50.0%	1.3799
38.2%	1.3788
23.6%	1.3775
0.0%	1.3754

EUR/USD - New Maximums, Then What?

Today EUR/USD renewed its long term maximum once again - 1.3842 is the highest rate since the November 1995. The lack of important economical releases for this day didn't stop EUR/USD bulls from holding Euro above the crucial 1.3800 mark. But how will EUR/USD behave in the near future? Will it go for 1.4000 and then for the new absolute historical maximums? Or will it just stuck in the 1.3800-1.3900 range until the bearish force will pull it down? Let's look at this EUR/USD weekly chart:

Don't be confused with the red arrow - it's just a purposed direction for the next medium term market movement. As seen on the chart a "W" formation of the Wolfe Waves theory can be clearly recognized within the first 4 red-marked waves. The next wave should follow as the correctional for these four. Looking at the chart this forecast is quite obvious. But I am almost sure that before the correction will start (which in my opinion will last for 4-5 weeks with the bottom around 1.3600) current bullish wave will live for another one or two weeks leading EUR/USD to around 1.3900 level. But nevertheless, even if the above mentioned correction will take its place, the further EUR/USD behavior is more bullish-orientated with the possible 1.3400-1.34500 targets by the end of 2007.

Mixed Data from U.S. Again

Some more mixed data followed yesterday's PPI and industrial production today. Their affect on EUR/USD could be noticed as it rallied to new decade maximum on 1.3832 and then returned back below the crucial 1.3800 mark. Consumer Price Index was released slightly better than consensus (0.2% against 0.1%, while it was quite low compared to previous 0.7% rise in June 2006). As for real estate sector - a decline in building permits was dubbed with the increase in new housing starts. Business crude oil inventories were also released today and they showed a decline in 449,000 barrels for the last week. FOMC minutes will be released tomorrow and all Forex traders will listen carefully what Ben Bernanke has to say about U.S. economy so far. Some very high volatility can be expected tomorrow.

Day of Economical Releases and EUR/USD Calming

EUR/USD calmed a little today, not reaching 1.3800 level, as the majority of traders expected some important data from U.S. statistics. Data came out mixed, but generally better for dollar than for Euro. Producer Price Index in June this year showed a slight decline (-0.2%), while consensus was at +0.1%. PPI excluding food & energy to he contrary increased by 0.3% (0.2% expected). For the stock market main surprise has been prepared by the U.S. Treasury - Net Foreign Purchases in May were $126.1 billion (against $80.3B expected). Industrial production growth for June (a very important component of GDP) came out at 0.5% and the Industrial Capacity Utilization was at 81.7% (81.4% expected). So what do we get today? Very good signs of economical growth - foreign investments and high productivity - one hand, and disappointing data on inflation on the other hand. More news to come this week, so get ready for some more surprises and try to get some pips when EUR/USD starts rolling again.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis for the 7/16-7/20 Week

General trend: ranging or slightly bullish.

Floor Pivot Points:
3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res
1.3429	1.3512	1.3647	1.3730	1.3865	1.3948	1.4083

Woodie's Pivot Points:
2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res
1.525	1.3673	1.3743	1.3891	1.3961

Camarilla Pivot Points:
4th Sup	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res	4th Res
1.3662	1.3722	1.3742	1.3762	1.3802	1.3822	1.3842	1.3902

Tom DeMark's Pivot Points:
Resistance:	1.3798
Support:	1.3580

Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
100.0%	1.3813
61.8%	1.3730
50.0%	1.3704
38.2%	1.3678
23.6%	1.3646
0.0%	1.3595

U.S. Consumer Sentiments at Highs while Dollar at Lows

Today the preliminary consumers sentiment index (by University of Michigan) came out showing surprisingly good results - 92.4 against 86.0 expected - a historically high level of consumers confidence which indicates an uptrend the economy of United States. While consumer sentiment index is at its highest levels, dollar is suffering a continuous EUR/USD rally which showed a new maximum (for more than ten years period) at 1.3813 level today. Perhaps, strong macroeconomic indicators from U.S. prevented EUR/USD from keeping above 1.3800 mark, but it can be broken again at any time soon. Some other U.S. statistics became available today - business inventories growth in May increased from 0.4% to 0.5% (while a growth slowdown to 0.3% was expected). Advance monthly retail sales for June came out unexpectedly bad - falling down by 0.9% (they were expected to remain intact) - which is quite strange considering the high consumers sentiment index.

EUR/USD Uptrend Lowers Pace

EUR/USD, showing three days of straight growth with new monthly maximums every day, slightly lowered its rally today. Almost touching 1.3800 this currency pair stopped at 1.3797 and then rolled back for around 20 pips. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims for the previous week came out better than expected - 308,000 against 320,000 claims. U.S. trade balance came out at the expected level - $60.0 billions. If tomorrow Friday will be bullish and the 1.3800 level be broken a larger scale uptrend for EUR/USD will begin.

EUR/USD Renews Its Decade Maximum

Today EUR/USD hit 1.3738 mark renewing its maximum since 1995. So we are at the almost twelve years maximum now and the possibilities for going even farther are getting higher and higher. Not many reasons for such a strong Euro rally for today. The only good ones I can think of - oil prices rising and some Eurozone financial leaders speaking of support for an expensive Euro. Other than that - only some really powerful bullish speculators could EUR/USD in such a dramatical way. Anyway, it's a good time to be in the market and get some more pips on falling dollar when EUR/USD breaks the 1.3800 level.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis for the 7/9-7/13 Week

General trend: bearish.

Floor Pivot Points:
3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res
1.3419	1.3473	1.3550	1.3604	1.3681	1.3735	1.3812

Woodie's Pivot Points:
2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res
1.3479	1.3561	1.3610	1.3692	1.3741

Camarilla Pivot Points:
4th Sup	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res	4th Res
1.3554	1.3590	1.3602	1.3614	1.3638	1.3650	1.3662	1.3698

Tom DeMark's Pivot Points:
Resistance:	1.3643
Support:	1.3512

Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
100.0%	1.3659
61.8%	1.3609
50.0%	1.3594
38.2%	1.3578
23.6%	1.3559
0.0%	1.3528

Employment Situation Data in U.S.

Some important macroeconomic data was released in U.S. today - employment situation in June from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As it was expected by the financial analysts, the overall unemployment rate in June remained on 4.5% level - which is quite low and is a good indicator for the U.S. economy. Non-farm payrolls in June reached 132,000 which is 7,00 higher than the experts' estimations. May non-farm payrolls were also revised towards the better side - 190,000 from 157,000. Average hourly earnings came out at 0.3% level (as expected), but May data was revised from 0.3% to 0.4%. Overall, this is a good news for the U.S. economics and dollar as well. The Forex market isn't playing this data yet (or it won't) - EUR/USD returned to its 1.3600-1.3650 range, and no serious movement can be seen.

Independence Day and Forex

Today EUR/USD was still as it was yesterday. As I said - this week will probably be flat until Friday at least (they tend to be quite unsettled, those Fridays). Independence Day in the United States of America is keeping the big U.S. Forex players out of the market, causing a lower volatility, especially on EUR/USD (while there some minor fluctuations on GBP/USD). It is quite clear that big holidays keep flat market even more flat, so I'd avoid expecting a high volatility Forex trading opportunities tomorrow. If you are for EUR/USD, just wait for 1.3600 or 1.3650 breakout and then jump in.

EUR/USD Slight Correction

Today EUR/USD retreated from its yesterday levels of 1.3630 down to 1.3600 level (with a failed try ground below 1.3600). Factory orders macroeconomic data for May came out better than expected but it still showed a decrease in this important indicator - manufacturers orders decreased by 0.5% (against 1.2% expected). But this data didn't affect Forex at all - the major bearish bars were seen four hours before it came out. It looks like EUR/USD will remain bound in 1.3600 - 1.3650 range for some time.

EUR/USD Hits Two Months High

Today Forex was a very unlucky place for U.S. dollar as the EUR/USD rallied to its two months high at 1.3630. Even good ISM index data (56% - a 1% rise - against 55% expected) couldn't help U.S. currency after last week losses. It is almost certain now that EUR/USD has broken the down-trend and is now heading north. Probable point of strong resistance can be seen at 1.3650 level, which if broken can mean a rally to 1.3800. While, stopping at 1.3650 will probably for a double-peak pattern with a new correction wave.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis for the 7/2-7/6 Week

General trend: ranging.

Floor Pivot Points:
3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res
1.3332	1.3374	1.3458	1.3500	1.3584	1.3626	1.3710

Woodie's Pivot Points:
2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res
1.3385	1.3479	1.3511	1.3605	1.3637

Camarilla Pivot Points:
4th Sup	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res	4th Res
1.3473	1.3507	1.3519	1.3530	1.3554	1.3565	1.3577	1.3611

Tom DeMark's Pivot Points:
Resistance:	1.3605
Support:	1.3479

Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
100.0%	1.3542
61.8%	1.3494
50.0%	1.3479
38.2%	1.3464
23.6%	1.3446
0.0%	1.3416

Bad U.S. Data Don't Bother EUR/USD

Forex seems to be ignoring todays macroeconomic data that came from United States - dollar is almost at the same level (slightly better even) as it was when the week started, a ranging week so far. New home sales disappointed U.S. optimists by showing a decline from 981,000 to 915,000 houses for May, it is even lower than experts expected - 925,000. Consumer confidence - one of the basic indicator of economical growth declined in June compared to May - 103.9 from 108.5, while it was expected to come just a little lower - 106.0. Such bad news for U.S. doesn't add any optimism to USD bulls and can cause some further EUR/USD growth.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis for the 6/25-6/29 Week

General trend: bearish.

Floor Pivot Points:
3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res
1.3306	1.3339	1.3404	1.3437	1.3502	1.3535	1.3600

Woodie's Pivot Points:
2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res
1.3347	1.3420	1.3445	1.3518	1.3543

Camarilla Pivot Points:
4th Sup	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res	4th Res
1.3415	1.3442	1.3451	1.3460	1.3478	1.3487	1.3496	1.3523

Tom DeMark's Pivot Points:
Resistance:	1.3469
Support:	1.3371

Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
100.0%	1.3470
61.8%	1.3433
50.0%	1.3421
38.2%	1.3409
23.6%	1.3395
0.0%	1.3372

EUR/USD Rallies at Trading Week End

Last day of a Forex trading week brought some good results for EUR/USD currency pairs, moving it past 1.3450 level (but still not breaking the recent downtrend). The main reasons of such behavior of EUR/USD can be seen in slightly better than expected April industrial orders which in year-to-year period changed by +12.2% against +8.7% anticipated by experts. Also, Jean-Claude Trichet, President of ECB, spoke about Eurozone economics marking it mostly in very optimistic epithets, that could give Euro bulls some hope for the faster interest rates increase by ECB.

EUR/USD Unsure on Mixed Fundamental Data

EUR/USD is still ranging making this week pretty calm compared to some previous weeks which showed us an amazing volatility and trendiness. The main reason for this slow Forex market I can see in the rather neutral economic releases we've seen this week. While the number and the market importance of these releases were relatively low. Today the most important data were initial jobless claims which appeared 14K above expected number - 324K against 314K for the previous period (10K increase). Leading indicators, which usually don't do much for the Forex came 0.1% higher than expected - at the level of 0.3%. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia manufacturers report showed a notable improvement in May.

Another Still Day for EUR/USD

EUR/USD Forex pair was still today again. Some insignificant volatility didn't even break 15 pips corridor. This day was low on macroeconomic releases, except for major release by the Bank of England - minutes of their latest meeting in June 6 and 7. This publication added some more weight to pound moving GBP/USD slightly higher during the day. Minutes showed that there are two more possible interest rates adjustment for 0.25% by the end of 2007.

Dollar Slow Even After Housing Data

EUR/USD was ranging between 1.3385 and 1.3435 levels undecided - to go for a correction or jump back to the bearish trend which is seen since the first week of May. Such a slow motion in EUR/USD Forex can continue for the whole week. Especially after today's U.S. housing data showed completely no effect on the Forex market. Although, the numbers came out in neutral level compared to the experts' expectations, but they showed a moderate decline compared to previous values.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis for the 6/18-6/22 Week

General trend: ranging.

Floor Pivot Points:
3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res
1.3178	1.3220	1.3304	1.3346	1.3430	1.3472	1.3556

Woodie's Pivot Points:
2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res
1.3231	1.3324	1.3357	1.3451	1.3483

Camarilla Pivot Points:
4th Sup	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res	4th Res
1.3319	1.3353	1.3365	1.3376	1.3400	1.3411	1.3423	1.3457

Tom DeMark's Pivot Points:
Resistance:	1.3451
Support:	1.3325

Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
100.0%	1.3388
61.8%	1.3340
50.0%	1.3325
38.2%	1.3310
23.6%	1.3292
0.0%	1.3262

Euro Rallies as the Fundamentals Are Not In Dollar's Favor

EUR/USD today on Forex rallied high to 1.3380 level as the fundamental indicators from U.S. came below expectations. First, May Core CPI came at 0.1% level, whereas expected value was 0.2% (though, overall CPI was 0.1% higher than expected). Then, Industrial Production showed completely no increase in May which can be very for the U.S. GDP. Industrial Capacity Utilization was also lower than expected - 81.3% against 81.6%. And at last - Michigan University Consumer Sentiments Index (preliminary) decreased in May to 83.7, whereas experts expected 88.0. Such a bad day for the U.S. macroeconomics can be a sign to FOMC, which might start considering interest rates lowering.

EUR/USD Ranging while Macroeconomics Show No Surprises

Today, Forex was pretty calm for EUR/USD pair with the only spike to 1.3279. But this day was rich on the macroeconomic releases bot from Eurozone and U.S. Though, they were in the bounds of experts' expectation. European CPI came out to be slightly lower than expected in month to month representation. U.S. jobless claims were one thousand lower than expected, but the previous number was revised towards a bit higher value. Producers Price Index in U.S. increased better than expected - 0.9% against 0.6%.

USD Bullish Trend Continues

EUR/USD continues on its way down and now it is a trend which must be taken to consideration even for long-term Euro bulls. Correction which has seemed to be trying to return EUR/USD back to bullish trend on 04/06 and 05/06 stopped too soon releasing EUR/USD to even deeper lows. Today on Forex EUR/USD reached new low since March and it doesn't seem to be stopping yet. Overall there are some good data from U.S. coming almost everyday. Today - Retail Sales came out to be more than twice as higher as expected - 1.4% against 0.6%, while oil and gas reserves remained on high levels.

Treasry Reports on Budget while USD at Highs

Today on Forex EUR/USD showed us a moderate decline. Bears were happy to see the new two month low at 1.3312. Ten minutes ago, U.S. Treasury reported its monthly statement about the U.S. budget showing its deficit at 67.7B (billion) level which is an indeed a great sum of money, but slightly lower than predicted by experts - 68.0B. Which might positively affect dollar on Forex.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis for the 6/11-6/15 Week

General trend: slightly bearish.

Floor Pivot Points:
3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res
1.3045	1.3182	1.3278	1.3415	1.3511	1.3648	1.3744

Woodie's Pivot Points:
2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res
1.3172	1.3257	1.3405	1.3490	1.3638

Camarilla Pivot Points:
4th Sup	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res	4th Res
1.3245	1.3309	1.3330	1.3352	1.3394	1.3416	1.3437	1.3501

Tom DeMark's Pivot Points:
Resistance:	1.3580
Support:	1.3347

Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
100.0%	1.3553
61.8%	1.3464
50.0%	1.3437
38.2%	1.3409
23.6%	1.3375
0.0%	1.3320

EUR/USD at Two Months Low

U.S. dollar rallied to its two months low at 1.3320 today. Surprisingly the United States Trade Balance Deficit for April 2007 was reported almost 5 billion dollars lower than predicted $58.5 billion, whereas March Trade Balance Deficit was revised to $62.4 billion (almost a billion lower than previous value). Trade Balance Deficit tightening was caused by both lower import and higher export which is a very good sign for the U.S. economics. But this wasn't the main reason for today's EUR/USD correction, the main reason was the higher yield for U.S. bonds which broke through 5.00% yesterday and now many long term investors need to buy dollars to get into the bonds.

Focus of the Day: BoE Rates and U.S. Jobless Claims

Bank of England voted to maintain its Bank Rate (interest rate) at 5.50% level - unchanged. It wasn't a surprise for Forex traders, but there was a slight possibility of interest rate hike from the BoE, so results are more bearish for the pound. From the United States the Initial Jobless Claims data for the previous week came - 309,000 against 315,00 expected - good result which moved EUR/USD back below 1.3450 level returning to the bearish trend.

EUR/USD Surprising Peak

Forex market today brought another surprise to the traders as the USD unexpectedly fell to 3 weeks low on mixed data from Eurozone. While some major macroeconomic indicators failed to show any good data for the Eurozone, EUR/USD reached 1.3553. Although it's rolled back pretty fast, EUR/USD is still traded above 1.3500 (which was a strong resistance level and now is a support level). ISM Services index from U.S. came a lot better than expected - 59.7% against 55.5% expected - this factor might play its role in returning USD to bullish trend, but that would be difficult task to accomplish.

Tough Times for USD

Today were not the best times for USD bulls as the Factory Orders indicator increased only by 0.3% (against 0.6% expected). Low growth of manufacturing orders means a slower growth of overall economy, while U.S. economy is already slow as a turtle with 2007 GDP estimated at around 1%. Such bad macroeconomic data will push EUR/USD up, even if technical analysis will cry for a correction. On the other side, previous Factory Orders indicator was revised towards better side - 4.1% from 3.5% which might cause some support for dollar on Forex.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis for 6/4-6/8 Week

Floor Pivot Points:
3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res
1.3260	1.3326	1.3387	1.3453	1.3514	1.3580	1.3641

Woodie's Pivot Points:
2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res
1.3325	1.3385	1.3452	1.3512	1.3579

Camarilla Pivot Points:
4th Sup	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res	4th Res
1.3378	1.3413	1.3425	1.3436	1.3460	1.3471	1.3483	1.3518

Tom DeMark's Pivot Points:
Resistance:	1.3547
Support:	1.3420

Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
100.0%	1.3519
61.8%	1.3470
50.0%	1.3456
38.2%	1.3441
23.6%	1.3422
0.0%	1.3392

EUR/USD Bearish after Fundamental News

EUR/USD broke through 1.3400 today on Forex market - showing a new 7-week low. Good macroeconomic data from U.S. was the reason for this break-through. Nonfarm payrolls - a major employment indicator of the U.S. economy - increased by 157,000 in May (22 thousands more than expected), while ISM Index - reported an increase by 0.3% up to 55.0% (against 54.0% expected). ISM Index means a lot in the U.S. economy because it describes its most powerful industries, and greatly influences FOMC rate decisions. Now it is quite possible to see an increase in U.S. interest rates by 0.25% this Fall, in my opinion.

EUR/USD Rally and Rollback after Consumer Confidence

Euro showed a really fast and heart-breaking (for some traders at least) rally of 100 pips today before the major daily fundamental event - May Consumer Confidence Index. After hitting its resistance level at 1.3517 EUR/USD calmed down a bit rolling back to 1.3500 level. May Consumer Confidence Index which came out to be 108.0 against 104.5 expected ended Euro rally moving EUR/USD to 1.3475 level. Many other macroeconomic indicators are scheduled for this week, so Forex traders must be aware of possible rallies and rollbacks similar to those seen today.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis for 5/28-6/1

General trend: bearish or ranging.

Floor pivot points:
3rd Sup__2nd Sup__1st Sup__Pivot____1st Res__2nd Res__3rd Res
1.3272___1.3341___1.3392___1.3461__1.3512___1.3581___1.3632

Woodie's pivot points:
2nd Sup__1st Sup__Pivot____1st Res__2nd Res
1.3337___1.3382___1.3457___1.3502__1.3577

Camarilla pivot points:
4th Sup__3rd Sup__2nd Sup__1st Sup__1st Res__2nd Res__3rd Res__4th Res
1.3376___1.3409___1.3420___1.3431__1.3453___1.3464___1.3475___1.3508

Tom DeMark's pivot points:
Resistance: 1.3486
Support: 1.3366

Fibonacci retracement levels:
100% - 1.3531
61,8% - 1.3485
50,0% - 1.3471
38,2% - 1.3457
23,6% - 1.3439
00,0% - 1.3411

Bad Houses Sales Costs Pips

Forex market was quite predictable today after the data on the Existing Home Sales for April came in 15:00 GMT. This macroeconomic indicator showed very poor results - 5.99 millions against 6.13 millions expected (and 6.15 millions in March). After these data came out EUR/USD gained nearly 50 pips (up to 1.3572) as the low activity in the realty industry can mean a general weakness in the U.S. economy. EUR/USD has almost fully rolled back already. But the great thing is that every Forex trader can always use monthly Existing Home Sales report to gain some fast profit on this news reaction.

Euro Down to 1.3416, while Pound Regains Strength

EUR/USD touched new its new monthly low at 1.3416. That was a very important movement for Euro bears, but the currency pair bounced back up to high 1.3500 very soon and then flattened down to 1.3460 - showing its volatile nature. Nevertheless, mid-term trend for EUR/USD can be seen as bearish. At the same time GBP returned its positions today on Forex market after Bank of England spoke about increasing interest rates by .50% not the usual and expected 0.25% giving a lot of strength to the Pound bulls. GBP/USD touched 1.9892 and then corrected a bit to 1.9850 level.

Additon to MT4 Expert Advisors

I've added a new expert advisor to MT4 Expert Advisors section of the site - myfxovereasy Expert Advisor + FXOverEasy Indicators. It's my own EA based on FXOverEasy indicators, or more exactly - on their combo by Shimodax from StrategyBuilder forum. Actually this Forex expert advisor trades against FXOverEasy strategy, but it showed very good results on EUR/USD M15 chart. But be careful, it is quite risky, don't trade the money you cannot afford to lose. Don't forget to leave your comment if you use this indicator ;-)

EUR/USD New Lows

Today EUR/USD hit new monthly minimum at 1.3436 since April 12. The most probable reason for this dollar "mini-rally" is the U.S. bonds auction which provoked a lot of USD buying on Forex. Such auctions usually stimulate a demand for the U.S. currency and this time it helps to break the bullish daily EUR/USD trend.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis for 5/21-5/25

General trend: bearish.

Floor pivot points:
3rd Sup__2nd Sup__1st Sup__Pivot____1st Res__2nd Res__3rd Res
1.3303___1.3384___1.3446___1.3527__1.3589___1.3670___1.3732

Woodie's pivot points:
2nd Sup__1st Sup__Pivot____1st Res__2nd Res
1.3379___1.3437___1.3522___1.3580__1.3665

Camarilla pivot points:
4th Sup__3rd Sup__2nd Sup__1st Sup__1st Res__2nd Res__3rd Res__4th Res
1.3429___1.3469___1.3482___1.3495__1.3521___1.3534___1.3547___1.3587

Tom DeMark's pivot points:
Resistance: 1.3558
Support: 1.3415

Fibonacci retracement levels:
100% - 1.3608
61,8% - 1.3553
50,0% - 1.3537
38,2% - 1.3520
23,6% - 1.3499
00,0% - 1.3465

EUR/USD Technical Analysis for 5/14-5/18

General trend: slightly bearish or ranging.

Floor pivot points:
3rd Sup__2nd Sup__1st Sup__Pivot____1st Res__2nd Res__3rd Res
1.3282___1.3372___1.3447___1.3537__1.3612___1.3702___1.3777

Woodie's pivot points:
2nd Sup__1st Sup__Pivot____1st Res__2nd Res
1.3368___1.3441___1.3533___1.3606__1.3698

Camarilla pivot points:
4th Sup__3rd Sup__2nd Sup__1st Sup__1st Res__2nd Res__3rd Res__4th Res
1.3432___1.3478___1.3493___1.3508__1.3538___1.3553___1.3568___1.3614

Tom DeMark's pivot points:
Resistance: 1.3574
Support: 1.3409

Fibonacci retracement levels:
100% - 1.3626
61,8% - 1.3563
50,0% - 1.3544
38,2% - 1.3524
23,6% - 1.3500
00,0% - 1.3461

EUR/USD Reaches 1 Month Low

EUR/USD reached its one month minimum level today during a fast dollar rally that has been influenced strongly by the yesterday's FOMC statements. Is it a bull trend break, or just a small correction before the new heights? The answer will lie in the next 2 weeks - the next one can be ranging, while the second - bearish, which will show Forex traders a new medium term trend for EUR/USD, bullish weeks will probably return EUR/USD back to bulls.

EUR/USD Ranging before FOMC Meeting Today

After retreating back down to under 1.3550 yesterday, EUR/USD is now slightly ranging while waiting for the FOMC statement (today, 19:15 GMT) - one of the most important and anticipated fundamental events in the Forex trading community. There is almost no doubt that the interest rates will be left intact (5.25% currently). But there are many speculations about what FOMC will say about U.S. economics, inflation expectations and its regulatory policy. Strong positive expectations from FOMC can empower USD for the new bullish trend, while weak or unsure statements made by FOMC may be used by the EUR bulls for the new EUR/USD long positions.

Euro Unsure in front of New Records?

Euro is floating in a rather tight range since it hit its new long term high at 1.3688 on 04/27. The corridor for EUR/USD seems to be established between 1.3670 and 1.3590 levels. Even poor fundamental data seen on Monday hasn't provided any help for Euro in breaking the new record. Possible reasons for this I see in two factors. First - French elections, although their outcome is known with almost no doubts, this factor still possesses some threat to European currency. Second - technical resistances - current EUR/USD rate is near several resistance levels (from long term highs to various waves ends), while weekly RSI is showing an overbought condition. We'll have to wait for the next week to see if Euro is still able to rally and break new heights.

Possible EUR/USD Reversal?

Jamie Saettele, Technical Currency Analyst of DialyFX suggests a soon EUR/USD reversal movement considering several Forex technical factors that can influence traders in the next few weeks. Saettele lists several Resistance levels which might appear to be quite impassible for EUR/USD bulls, while providing more in-depth technical analysis to prove his point. To read more of Jamie Saettele's article click here. I've tried to apply my own analysis combined with Wolfe waves theory and have came to the conclusion that the major turning point in EUR/USD is quite possible to happen this week:

Point "5" (see chart) is the point after which the strong bearish must follow. This wave (according to Wolfe waves rules) will last until it reaches a cyan line which goes through points "1" and "4" - this is 1.2700-1.2800 level, which is quite far below. Nothing can be guaranteed on Forex market, but I think that we've got a good probability of some bearish movements on EUR/USD.

EUR/USD Reaches New 2 Year High

Today EUR/USD reached 1.3576 value - a 2 year high since the January 2005. It is currently at its 2 year resistance level. Breaking this resistance would result in EUR/USD going even farther - to 1.4000-1.4500 levels. But for now, USD is slightly gaining strength and rolling back 1.3350.