Forex Technical Analysis for 08/14-08/18 Week

Estimated general trends:
EUR/USD - bearish.
GBP/USD - bearish.
USD/JPY - bearish or ranging.
EUR/JPY - bearish or ranging.

Floor Pivot Points:
Pair	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res
EUR/USD	1.3870	1.3526	1.3610	1.3724	1.3808	1.3922	1.4006
GBP/USD	2.0513	1.9973	2.0102	2.0282	2.0411	2.0591	2.0720
USD/JPY	119.91	115.82	117.10	118.47	119.75	121.12	122.40
EUR/JPY	165.76	157.07	159.59	162.48	165.00	167.89	170.41

Woodie's Pivot Points:
Pair	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res
EUR/USD	1.3519	1.3594	1.3717	1.3792	1.3915
GBP/USD	1.9973	2.0102	2.0282	2.0411	2.0591
USD/JPY	115.82	117.10	118.47	119.75	121.12
EUR/JPY	157.07	159.59	162.48	165.00	167.89

Camarilla Pivot Points:
Pair	4th Sup	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res	4th Res
EUR/USD	1.3584	1.3639	1.3657	1.3675	1.3711	1.3729	1.3747	1.3802
GBP/USD	2.0061	2.0146	2.0174	2.0203	2.0259	2.0288	2.0316	2.0401
USD/JPY	116.93	117.66	117.90	118.15	118.63	118.88	119.12	119.85
EUR/JPY	159.12	160.61	161.11	161.60	162.60	163.09	163.59	165.08

Tom DeMark's Pivot Points:
Pair:	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	EUR/JPY
Resistance:	1.3766	2.0501	120.44	163.74
Support:	1.3568	2.0192	117.79	158.33

Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
Pairs	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	EUR/JPY
100.0%	1.3839	2.0462	119.83	165.38
61.8%	1.3763	2.0344	118.82	163.31
50.0%	1.3740	2.0308	118.51	162.68
38.2%	1.3717	2.0271	118.19	162.04
23.6%	1.3688	2.0226	117.81	161.25
0.0%	1.3641	2.0153	117.18	159.97

Technical Analysis for 8/6-8/10 Week

EUR/USD general trend: slightly bullish.
GBP/USD general trend: slightly bullish.
USD/JPY general trend: ranging.
EUR/JPY general trend: slightly bullish.

Floor Pivot Points:
Pair	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res
EUR/USD	1.3781	1.3525	1.3648	1.3734	1.3857	1.3943	1.4066
GBP/USD	2.0404	2.0068	2.0235	2.0347	2.0514	2.0626	2.0793
USD/JPY	119.83	116.49	117.26	118.38	119.15	120.27	121.04
EUR/JPY	163.45	158.96	160.78	162.27	164.09	165.58	167.40

Woodie's Pivot Points:
Pair	2nd Sup	1st Sup	Pivot	1st Res	2nd Res
EUR/USD	1.3534	1.3668	1.3743	1.3877	1.3952
GBP/USD	2.0068	2.0235	2.0347	2.0514	2.0626
USD/JPY	116.49	117.26	118.38	119.15	120.27
EUR/JPY	158.96	160.78	162.27	164.09	165.58

Camarilla Pivot Points:
Pair	4th Sup	3rd Sup	2nd Sup	1st Sup	1st Res	2nd Res	3rd Res	4th Res
EUR/USD	1.3657	1.3715	1.3734	1.3753	1.3791	1.3810	1.3829	1.3887
GBP/USD	2.0249	2.0325	2.0351	2.0376	2.0428	2.0453	2.0479	2.0555
USD/JPY	117.00	117.52	117.69	117.87	118.21	118.39	118.56	119.08
EUR/JPY	160.77	161.68	161.98	162.29	162.89	163.20	163.50	164.41

Tom DeMark's Pivot Points:
Pair:	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	EUR/JPY
Resistance:	1.3796	2.0570	118.77	164.84
Support:	1.3587	2.0291	116.88	161.53

Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
Pairs	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	EUR/JPY
100.0%	1.3819	2.0459	119.49	163.77
61.8%	1.3739	2.0352	118.77	162.51
50.0%	1.3715	2.0320	118.55	162.12
38.2%	1.3690	2.0287	118.32	161.72
23.6%	1.3659	2.0246	118.05	161.24
0.0%	1.3610	2.0180	117.60	160.46

Independence Day and Forex

Today EUR/USD was still as it was yesterday. As I said - this week will probably be flat until Friday at least (they tend to be quite unsettled, those Fridays). Independence Day in the United States of America is keeping the big U.S. Forex players out of the market, causing a lower volatility, especially on EUR/USD (while there some minor fluctuations on GBP/USD). It is quite clear that big holidays keep flat market even more flat, so I'd avoid expecting a high volatility Forex trading opportunities tomorrow. If you are for EUR/USD, just wait for 1.3600 or 1.3650 breakout and then jump in.

Another Still Day for EUR/USD

EUR/USD Forex pair was still today again. Some insignificant volatility didn't even break 15 pips corridor. This day was low on macroeconomic releases, except for major release by the Bank of England - minutes of their latest meeting in June 6 and 7. This publication added some more weight to pound moving GBP/USD slightly higher during the day. Minutes showed that there are two more possible interest rates adjustment for 0.25% by the end of 2007.

Euro Down to 1.3416, while Pound Regains Strength

EUR/USD touched new its new monthly low at 1.3416. That was a very important movement for Euro bears, but the currency pair bounced back up to high 1.3500 very soon and then flattened down to 1.3460 - showing its volatile nature. Nevertheless, mid-term trend for EUR/USD can be seen as bearish. At the same time GBP returned its positions today on Forex market after Bank of England spoke about increasing interest rates by .50% not the usual and expected 0.25% giving a lot of strength to the Pound bulls. GBP/USD touched 1.9892 and then corrected a bit to 1.9850 level.

Pound Breaks $2 Level

Today after CPI report came out to be higher than expected (Consumers Price Index in March (YoY) reached 3.1% against expected 2.8%), GBP/USD broke through the historical $2 level and is floating now in 2.0030-2.0070 range - the highest since 1981. Looks like bad times for USD have came. On the other hand it's nearly a perfect time to enter long on USD, because the correction will certainly follow. Though, Forex market can't be treated that simple.